Civilization, Niall Ferguson

Introduction: Rasselas’s Question

• An interesting thing to keep in mind when studying history is that many years ago people didn’t typically live as long and were more exposed to death and morbid suffering. This smaller lifespan likely produced more urgency and populated positions with people who had more risk-taking tendencies, whereas in modernity we may be a bit more docile.

  Chapter 1: Competition

• “It may just have been easier for marauding mongols to access China; Europe was less penetrable by abhors on horseback—and therefore has less need of unity.”
• The forbidden city in Beijing is immense, with a theme of Gates and Halls of Supreme/Central/Preserving Harmony. Harmony in this sense was bound with the Chinese idea of undivided imperial authority

  Chapter 2: Science

• Scientific progress (i.e., technological evolution) was critical for the West’s advantage over the once dominant Ottoman Empire. Part of the reason the West pulled away in the scientific respect was because their governments were more supportive (or tolerant) of the pursuit of science, and valued it (especially in its promise to enhance wellbeing and to improve militaristic outcomes)
• The Ottomans had a lingering superiority complex from their previous reign of dominance, and struggled to admit that they were falling behind, and that their governmental regime hindered progress. They thus resisted adopting technologies (such as the printing press, and modern scientific findings)
• Israel is like a sandbox surrounded by foes, and thus needs better science to ensure its strategic survival. Israel has more scientist and engineers per capita than any other country and produces more scientific papers per capita.
  • Could this be a testament to why Judaism seems to produce more Nobel prize winners? Judaism was an adaptive technology developed to help Israelites endure the constant ragdolling that they were constantly subject to by competing imperial powerhouses (Romans, Persians, Assyrians, Egyptians). Perhaps the behaviour preached by the tradition of Judaism produces more robust and resilient subjects, which enables more subjects to achieve greatness

    Chapter 3: Property

• British America had upwards mobility in its infancy. There was a surplus of land, and a shortage of labour. So, to incentivize labour, the Brits allowed labourers the right to property after a few years of service. This was quite a steal for the labourers (serfs), who, if they had stayed in Britain, had little to no chance of acquiring property
• This upward mobility stimulated economic growth, and once anyone owned property they earned the right to vote.
• In South America, the Spaniards opted for a different approach. There wasn’t a labour shortage in the Americas, so the Spaniards simply exploited the native populations for their labour, and the riches were granted to a tiny elite. The crown owned the land, and only a small fraction was entitled to some of it. This meant there was little upwards mobility, even for Spaniards.
• “In South America the Indians worked the land. In North America, they lost it.”
• Between 1500 and 1769, 2/3 of migrants were slaves, peaking at 3/4 between 1700 and 1760
• The Portuguese had sophisticated slave markets, such that by 1825, 56% of Brazil’s population were of African origin, compared with 22% in Spanish America and 17% in North America
• Average life expectancy for a Brazilian slave was 23 as late as the 1850s; a slave had to last only 5 years to double a slave owner’s investment
• South America was more tolerant of racial interbreeding. Most of the Spanish and Portuguese men who crossed the Atlantic came alone, thus yearning for partners when they arrived. British men generally came with their wives upon migration; hence interbreeding was less common and became taboo.

  Chapter 4: Medicine

• On War (1832), one of the best books on war, described war as a paradoxical trinity composed of primordial violence, hatred, and enmity; plays of chance and probability; and subordination as an instrument of policy
• Defence is always a stronger form of fighting than attack, as the force of an attack gradually diminishes more rapidly than that of a defence
• Commander must remember four things: assess probabilities, act with utmost concentration, act with utmost speed, and requires the subordination of the means of warfare to the ends of foreign policy (i.e., warfare acts must correspond with the interest of the general group, and control must be maintained to ensure this is satisfied and things don’t degrade into anarchy)
• Europe brought medicine to Africa, drastically improving health outcomes. The underlying motive was likely so that economic expansion could progress. Railroads increased infection rates and spread, so countermeasures (vaccines) needed to be developed
• Meanwhile, Africans were subject to substantial prejudice, based on eugenic pseudoscience

  Chapter 5: Consumption

• The great paradox of consumerism: the economic system designed to offer infinite choice to the individual has ended up homogenizing humanity
• The Industrial Revolution flourished first in Britain. One convincing theory is that Britain had a limited supply of labourers, which made them expensive, and a surplus of coal, which motivated innovations to replace expensive manpower with cheap coal powered machines
• Words from Greek poet Rigas Feraios: “It’s better to have an hour as a free man than forty years of slavery and prison.”
  • Metaphysical interpretation emphasizes the importance of meditation and mindfulness, freeing yourself from the proclivity to perpetually wander (slaving to cravings)
• The Second World War was between four distinct western social organizations: national socialism, Soviet communism, European imperialism (which Japan had adopted), and American capitalism
• All major combatants evolved highly centralized state apparatuses to support war efforts, personal freedom was sacrificed for military benefit, regardless of the social orientation of the nation
• The war against Germany was won by a combination of British intelligence (who cracked German codes), Soviet manpower (who slaughtered German soldiers), and American capital (which flattened German cities)
• Centralized planning works well for organizing the production of a military weapon, but not for organizing the demands of consumers (which are steeped in complexity and in constant flux). Centralized planning is rigid and constrained, but consumer demands are in constant flux and evolution. Post-war, the communist soviet consumer market just couldn’t keep up with capitalist America.
• The Soviet party knew what clothing everyone needed and placed orders with state-owned factories accordingly. For this reason, they had to vilify and demonize outsider products, such as jeans, because freedom of expression (through clothing) meant a free market, which would threaten the foundations of the centralized market
• Industrial evolution and the consumer society were propelled in large part due to clothing, first producing clothing efficiently, and then making clothing sexier and more expressive

  Chapter 6: Work

• Max Weber argued that Protestantism shifted individuals’ relationships to work, changing working to live to living to work. Protestants valued industry and thrift that encapsulated hard-working godliness
• Acquisition of wealth was liberated from the inhibitions of traditionalist ethics (where motivation for acquiring wealth was taboo)
• Luther’s emphasis on individual reading of the bible encouraged literacy and printing, which both encouraged economic development and scientific study
• Religious belief tends to be associated with economic growth, as ideas of heaven and hell encourage good behaviour. Hard work, mutual trust, thrift, honesty, and openness to strangers are improved—all economically beneficial traits
• The separation of church and state in America allowed for a free religious market, which encouraged innovations to make the church and worship experience more vibrant and fulfilling. In Europe, religions were/are (?) still state monopolies, which are less efficient than free market counterparts
• American evangelicals put surprisingly few demands on believers, instead believers serve out demands to God, asking Him to solve their personal problems. The only demands are for money, which are funneled into the pockets of charismatic leaders
• Religious communities double as both credit networks and supply chains of creditworthy, trustworthy fellow believers. This is one reason Christianity is taking off in Wenzhou, as the social transition from communism to capitalism breeds conditions rife with exploitation and corruption. People need people they can trust
• Three requirements for sustainable economic growth, as per a report given to the CCP: property rights as a foundation (resources), the law as a safeguard (resource security), and morality as a support (community)
• This idea that we are doomed is deeply connect with our sense of mortality…we are bound to disintegrate…vainglorious monuments end up as ruins

  Conclusion: The Rivals

• Civilizations are complex, thus exhibiting many of the characteristics of complex systems in the natural world—including the tendency to move quite suddenly from stability to instability
  • similar to intermittent turbulence in fluid flows
• Book summary: six applications enabled the West to dominate the rest:
  • Competition: political fragmentation allowed competition amongst corporate entities
  • Science: the scientific revolution flourished in the west, breeding advances in math, astronomy, chemistry, and biology
  • Rule of law and representative government followed private property rights and the representation of property owners in elected legislatures
  • Modern medicine: healthcare breakthroughs, including control of tropical diseases, were made by westerners
  • Consumerism: Industrial Revolution took place where productivity enhancing tech was supplied, and demands for better and cheaper goods, beginning with cotton garments
  • Work ethic: westerners combined more extensive and intensive labour with higher savings rates, which permitted sustained capital accumulation
• The biggest threat to civilization is not other civilizations, but cowardice and the historical ignorance that feeds it